Possible scenario
Legal Processing Fight
24% Chance
The violence pushes the Department of Home Affairs to seek legal clarification or operational flexibility while still formally complying with the order. Civil-society groups and refugee advocates challenge any delay, keeping the issue in court rather than on the streets.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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