Possible scenario
Democratic upset win
17% Chance
A less likely but plausible outcome is that Hudson's ad spending was an early sign of serious trouble. If Democratic turnout surges in suburban and exurban precincts while Republican enthusiasm softens, the NRCC chair could lose in a race that becomes a symbol of a broader House backlash.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.