Possible scenario
Ethics Story Fades
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the disclosure becomes a Washington ethics story without changing FTC policy or leadership. Ferguson and the Trump administration argue the Big Law outreach was routine pre-appointment career planning and that existing recusals, if any, are sufficient.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.