Possible scenario
Phased Reopening Deal
45% Chance
Iran, the U.S., Qatar and UN intermediaries converge on the previously proposed seven-day plan, allowing a supervised reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This is the most likely path because Qatar's announced $6 billion release gives Tehran a face-saving financial concession while letting Washington avoid a military escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.0%
- Consumer Services +1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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