Possible scenario
Safety Review Compromise
21% Chance
The administration tries to reduce interagency conflict by reframing the block as a temporary safety and readiness review rather than a permanent rejection of mRNA flu vaccines. This compromise would preserve political flexibility while avoiding a direct confrontation with the FDA’s approval process.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.2%
Tickers
- MRNA-0.8%
- PFE-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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