Possible scenario
Ban Largely Holds
40% Chance
The Department of War maintains the block through the 2026-27 flu season, arguing that military health policy can apply a higher precautionary standard than FDA approval. This is the most likely path because the 2022 vaccine-mandate backlash and the renamed Department of War’s political posture make a quick voluntary reversal unlikely.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.8%
Tickers
- MRNA-4.2%
- PFE-1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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