Possible scenario
Quiet Clarification
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Pete Hegseth's team narrows the claim rather than fully retracting it, saying UAE-linked security contacts were consulted but were not physically present at the Israel visit. Abu Dhabi and Jerusalem avoid a public rupture because the Abraham Accords relationship remains strategically useful despite recent friction over rescue flights.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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