Possible scenario
Targeted Controls Return
18% Chance
Trump avoids a formal export ban but uses softer tools to show action on diesel prices. Reporting requirements, voluntary restraint requests, or emergency allocation language weigh on refiners without fully disrupting trade flows.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.9%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
- VLO-4.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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