Possible scenario
Release Stabilizes Diesel
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the G7 release takes enough pressure off Atlantic Basin diesel markets for Trump to keep the export-ban threat shelved. U.S. refiners retain access to export markets while diesel prices ease from record levels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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