Possible scenario
Leakage and Friction
18% Chance
Even if Iran has no recognized oil revenue this week, evasion networks may try to reconstitute flows through ship-to-ship transfers, renamed vessels, and small Chinese refiners. The main uncertainty is whether Washington tolerates limited leakage or escalates secondary sanctions against Chinese and shipping entities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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