Possible scenario
Embargo Holds Firm
42% Chance
The most likely near-term path is that the US blockade and sanctions regime continue to prevent Iran from loading or monetizing crude. Asian buyers, insurers, banks, and shipowners remain unwilling to touch Iranian cargoes while Washington signals it can identify and strand tankers quickly.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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