Possible scenario
Sweetened Deal Succeeds
38% Chance
Gold Fields uses Elliott Management's public pressure and support from other institutional holders to reopen talks with Northern Star. A modestly improved mix of shares and cash, plus governance concessions, brings Northern Star's board into negotiations.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.