Possible scenario
Peso Stabilizes Naturally
30% Chance
Seasonal remittances, exporter dollar sales, and profit-taking in long-dollar positions help the peso stop falling without a dramatic policy step. This outcome is plausible if the record low triggers private-sector dollar selling and investors judge recent BSP hikes sufficient.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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