Possible scenario
Depreciation Extends
25% Chance
The peso breaks beyond 64 as importers hedge fuel and food costs while the dollar remains supported by hawkish Fed expectations. This path would worsen imported inflation and raise the odds of additional BSP tightening despite already slowing growth.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
- Finance -0.8%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
- Utilities -0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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