Possible scenario
Houthi Momentum Builds
20% Chance
The airport strike becomes part of a broader Houthi campaign to disrupt the Yemeni government's logistics while fighting intensifies around Taiz and Sanaa. The immediate market impact remains mostly geopolitical unless shipping lanes or Saudi energy assets are threatened.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.