Possible scenario
Contained Airport Disruption
40% Chance
The strike disables parts of Aden International Airport but does not immediately trigger a wider regional response. Repair crews, Yemeni government forces, and coalition air defenses focus on restoring limited operations while the Houthis use the attack for leverage around Taiz and Sanaa.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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