Possible scenario
Coalition Retaliation Expands
25% Chance
Saudi Arabia and Yemen's internationally recognized government respond with targeted strikes on Houthi missile infrastructure around Sanaa and Saada. The escalation remains below a direct regional war but raises short-term energy, insurance, and aviation risk premiums.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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