Possible scenario
Retaliation Broadens
20% Chance
The probe becomes one step in a wider retaliation cycle following EU EV tariffs and reported EU trade-defense tools. This is less likely than a narrow case but remains credible given Beijing's recent pork measures and threats of additional probes.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.1%
Tickers
- STLA-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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