Possible scenario
Narrow Chemical Case
45% Chance
China treats the p-nitrotoluene probe as a targeted anti-dumping action rather than a major escalation. This is the most likely path because the product market is narrow and the case fits Beijing's recent pattern of calibrated responses to EU trade actions.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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