Possible scenario
Managed Trade Talks
25% Chance
Beijing and Brussels use technical talks to contain the case and prevent it from interfering with broader negotiations on EVs, pork and trade-defense tools. This outcome is plausible because both sides have incentives to preserve leverage without triggering a larger commercial rupture.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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