Possible scenario
Limited U.S.-Saudi Response
42% Chance
Washington and Riyadh respond to the American fatality with a calibrated military and air-defense package rather than a broad campaign. Rubio's confirmation increases U.S. political pressure to act, but the White House and Saudi leadership try to avoid a direct regional war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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