Possible scenario
Houthi Campaign Intensifies
23% Chance
The Houthis interpret the American death and Saudi rejection of the prior truce as leverage rather than a reason to pull back. They continue missile and drone attacks against Saudi airports, fuel storage, and logistics targets to force concessions in Yemen.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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