Possible scenario
Diplomacy Gains Traction
25% Chance
The killing of an American accelerates pressure on the Houthis, Saudi Arabia, and mediators to prevent a larger conflict. Oman, the UN, and back-channel U.S. contacts push for a limited truce focused on airports, missiles, and drone launches.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Consumer Services +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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