Possible scenario
White House Softens
20% Chance
Administration officials move to contain the dispute by saying Trump disagrees with the hike but will not interfere with the Fed's legal mandate. This outcome is plausible if markets react poorly or Republican lawmakers warn against undermining central-bank credibility.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Finance +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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