Possible scenario
Warsh Holds Line
45% Chance
Kevin Warsh keeps emphasizing inflation risks despite Trump's criticism, and the Fed frames the September hike as a data-driven decision. This is the most likely path because Warsh has already voted for the hike and signaled that more tightening may be needed.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Technology -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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