Possible scenario
Trump Escalates Pressure
25% Chance
Trump intensifies his criticism of Warsh, arguing that higher rates are hurting households and businesses. The likely effect is a limited but real Fed-independence risk premium, especially if the attacks become personal or legalistic.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.