Possible scenario
Contained Border Strike
44% Chance
The most likely path is a repeat of the 2022 pattern: Iran frames the attack as a strike on Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, while Baghdad and Erbil condemn the violation without direct military retaliation. The incident remains localized to Iraqi Kurdistan and does not materially disrupt oil production or US forces.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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