Possible scenario
Baghdad Security Deal
18% Chance
Iraq tries to prevent further Iranian strikes by accelerating implementation of the Iran-Iraq security arrangement targeting Iranian Kurdish opposition activity. This outcome shifts the issue from open cross-border fire to security coordination among Baghdad, Erbil, and Tehran.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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