Possible scenario
Hidden Battlefield Deterioration
30% Chance
A higher-casualty explanation may reveal that prior Iranian retaliation or U.S. base exposure was worse than acknowledged. That would increase perceived escalation risk, support oil prices, and lift volatility over the next one to two sessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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