Possible scenario
De-Escalation Backlash
22% Chance
The casualty revision could accelerate pressure from Congress and allies to limit U.S. operations against Iran. If the White House responds by narrowing strike authorities or reopening talks, risk assets would improve modestly and oil would likely fall.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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