Possible scenario
Accounting Dispute Contained
38% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the casualty increase is explained as delayed consolidation of traumatic brain injury, evacuation, and treatment records rather than a new Iranian strike. The story remains politically damaging but does not materially change the military balance or oil-supply risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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