Possible scenario
Interagency Delay
27% Chance
The SEC objects that single-stock perpetual futures could function economically like equity swaps or synthetic margin stock products. The CFTC does not reject Payward outright, but the process slows into a joint-agency review or formal comment period.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
Tickers
- COIN-2.3%
- -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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