Swiss Compromise Deal

The most likely path is a negotiated compromise in which Switzerland keeps tighter post-Credit Suisse safeguards but reduces the near-term burden on UBS. Bern has strong political incentives to show toughness, while UBS has leverage because an HQ exit would damage Switzerland's financial-center status.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.