Possible scenario
Growth Scare Deepens
22% Chance
The euro's decline increasingly reflects weak domestic fundamentals rather than just U.S. rate differentials. Fresh euro-area data confirm soft demand, making investors more concerned about earnings and credit quality across cyclical sectors.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.