Possible scenario
Dollar Momentum Extends
38% Chance
The euro keeps sliding as markets extend the divergence trade: a relatively hawkish Federal Reserve path versus an ECB still constrained by weak euro-area growth. The move remains orderly, but investors continue to add to long-dollar positions after the euro's fifth straight weekly decline.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.