Possible scenario
Shipping shutdown widens
25% Chance
The attack may shift the crisis from a military exchange to a commercial-shipping crisis. Even without immediate retaliation, insurers, charterers, and tanker operators could pause calls at Fujairah and nearby Gulf of Oman routes until risk terms are repriced.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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