Possible scenario
Retaliation cycle
30% Chance
Washington and Abu Dhabi may conclude that repeated attacks outside Hormuz require a kinetic response against IRGC missile, drone, or radar assets. This scenario carries a higher risk of rapid escalation because Iran has already signaled it will target vessels beyond the Strait.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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