Possible scenario
Attack contained
35% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is that the strike causes limited operational disruption at Fujairah and no immediate mass-casualty event. UAE air defenses, U.S. naval assets, and emergency port procedures keep the incident from becoming an outright regional war in the first 24-48 hours.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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