Possible scenario
Supply Caps Upside
25% Chance
The EIA's forecast for record U.S. output offsets some of the bullish inventory and OPEC+ signals. Oil remains near ConocoPhillips' implied floor, but investors resist pricing in a sustained move much above the mid-$70s.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- HAL+0.5%
- SLB+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.