Possible scenario
Demand Tests Floor
20% Chance
A softer macro backdrop, especially in China or Europe, could undercut the bullish supply-side narrative. In this scenario, the market tests whether OPEC+ cuts and inventory rebuilding are enough to hold prices around $70.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
- COP-2.2%
- -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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