Possible scenario
Retaliation Broadens War
20% Chance
If Syria visibly joins the campaign, the Houthis and Iran-aligned networks could try to impose costs on Damascus, Riyadh, or Red Sea shipping. This is less likely than a symbolic or limited Syrian role, but it carries the largest short-term market impact because it could link the Yemen front to Syria, Gulf energy, and maritime trade.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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