Possible scenario
Limited Syrian Deployment
28% Chance
Syria sends a limited uniformed contingent to the Saudi-led campaign, likely framed as support for Arab security rather than a declaration of war on the Houthis. This would be a material escalation, but still short of a regional war because operations remain controlled by Saudi command structures.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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