Possible scenario
P5 Veto Blocks Her
22% Chance
A permanent Security Council member moves from hesitation to a blocking vote, preventing Grynspan from becoming the formal nominee despite her plurality support. The race reopens, reflecting great-power bargaining rather than broad opposition to her personally.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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