Possible scenario
Faster Tightening Path
20% Chance
The BoJ may move before April if inflation persistence, yen weakness, or wage data force a faster response. This would represent a more meaningful hawkish repricing than the current survey implies, though still short of a crisis scenario.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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