Possible scenario
April Hike Delayed
15% Chance
The BoJ could postpone the expected 1.50% move if growth weakens, inflation cools, or global risk conditions worsen. This would unwind part of the recent hawkish pricing and likely pressure Japanese banks while supporting some rate-sensitive equities.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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