Possible scenario
April Hike Baseline
55% Chance
The most likely path is that the Bank of Japan raises the policy rate from 1.25% to 1.50% at its April 2027 meeting. This fits the current economist consensus, Ueda's recent inflation language, and the steady normalization path since the end of negative rates.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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