Possible scenario
U.S.-Saudi Strikes Expand
18% Chance
If Houthi units continue to threaten Saudi shipping, Washington and Riyadh may move from coordination to joint or parallel strikes on launchers, depots, and radar sites. This would reduce some Houthi capacity but raise the risk of Iranian-backed retaliation across the Gulf.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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