Possible scenario
Limited Houthi Retaliation
28% Chance
The Houthis answer the U.S.-Saudi coordination with limited missile or drone attempts against Saudi-linked shipping. Most attacks are intercepted, but the risk of a successful strike keeps crude and shipping-risk premiums elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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