Possible scenario
Coordinated Deterrence Holds
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the U.S. 5th Fleet and Royal Saudi Naval Forces translate coordination into tighter patrol patterns, shared targeting data, and convoy advisories. Houthi forces remain hostile but avoid a direct escalation that would invite larger U.S.-Saudi strikes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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