Possible scenario
Risk-Off Spillover
20% Chance
The yield move becomes a broader tightening shock for risk assets, especially if investors worry that financing costs will squeeze margins and demand. Credit spreads widen and volatility rises, even if Treasuries later receive some safe-haven demand.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.3%
- Finance -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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